Week 14 Fantasy Football Analysis

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Generated: 2025-12-04 08:25

Matchup Status (Week 14)

0.0 - 0.0 vs Meat Pistols

Games Pending (16)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Jacoby Brissett QB QB 15.3 18.0
Bucky Irving RB RB 16.4 15.0
Tyjae Spears RB RB 8.6 9.5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR WR 20.9 19.5
Rashee Rice WR WR 17.1 17.5
Juwan Johnson TE TE 9.7 10.0
Jameson Williams WR RB/WR/TE 16.9 18.0
Jason Myers K K 8.3 10.0
Rams D/ST D/ST D/ST 6.8 8.0
Emanuel Wilson (bench) RB BE 6.1 ---
Hunter Henry (bench) TE BE 0.0 ---
Jordan Love (bench) QB BE 17.6 17.5
Keenan Allen (bench) WR BE 10.5 ---
Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) WR BE 13.8 14.0
Omarion Hampton (bench) RB BE 12.1 ---
Tetairoa McMillan (bench) WR BE 0.0 ---
0.0 Starter Actuals
125.5 Remaining Proj
125.5 Est. Total

Opponent: Meat Pistols

Opponent Games Pending (16)

PlayerPosSlotESPN
Patrick Mahomes QB QB 17.9
Ollie Gordon II RB RB 3.2
Ray Davis RB RB 2.6
DJ Moore WR WR 9.1
Malik Washington WR WR 8.4
Dalton Kincaid TE TE 10.0
Nick Chubb RB RB/WR/TE 5.3
Brandon Aubrey K K 8.9
Vikings D/ST D/ST D/ST 5.5
Chris Boswell (bench) K BE 7.9
Christian McCaffrey (bench) RB BE 0.0
J.J. McCarthy (bench) QB BE 14.6
Keon Coleman (bench) WR BE 2.2
Packers D/ST (bench) D/ST BE 3.5
Rhamondre Stevenson (bench) RB BE 0.0
Sam LaPorta (bench) TE BE 0.0
0.0 Opp Actuals
71.0 Opp Remaining
71.0 Opp Est. Total
Projected Margin: +54.5 pts

Executive Summary

Week 14 presents a favorable matchup against Meat Pistols with strong win probability (~85%). The lineup prioritizes upside with Jacoby Brissett at QB (70% BOOM probability vs LAR's porous defense) over the safer Jordan Love. Irving's return from injury combined with a juicy NO matchup (28th vs RB) provides RB1 stability. Jameson Williams locks in Thursday against DAL's 30th-ranked pass defense in a potential shootout (54.5 game total). Key concerns are Omarion Hampton's return status (GTD vs PHI's elite run defense) and MHJ's Wednesday practice absence - both require Sunday monitoring.

Key Insights

Recommended Starting Lineup

SlotPlayerOppESPNLLMModeConfidence
QBJacoby BrissettLAR15.318.0BOOMMEDIUM
RBBucky IrvingUnk16.415.0MODERATEMEDIUM
RBTyjae SpearsCLE8.69.5MODERATELOW
WRJaxon Smith-NjigbaATL20.919.5MODERATEHIGH
WRRashee RiceHOU17.117.5MODERATEMEDIUM
FLEXJameson WilliamsDAL16.918.0MODERATEMEDIUM
TEJuwan JohnsonTB9.710.0MODERATEMEDIUM
KJason MyersATL8.310.0MODERATELOW
D/STRams D/STARI6.88.0MODERATEMEDIUM

Lineup Decisions

QB: Start Jacoby Brissett over Jordan Love - MC shows 70% BOOM mode for Brissett vs LAR. High game total (47.0), ARI +8 = garbage time passing.

FLEX: Start Jameson Williams over Marvin Harrison Jr. - MHJ missed Wednesday practice. JWill in smash spot vs DAL (30th vs WR, 54.5 total).

RB2: Start Tyjae Spears over Omarion Hampton - Hampton returning from IR vs elite PHI run D. Spears safer floor.

XGBoost Boom/Bust Analysis

PlayerPosBoom%Mod%Bust%Confidence
Jason MyersK44.8%34.9%20.3%MEDIUM
Marvin Harrison Jr.WR36.7%43.8%19.5%MEDIUM
Rashee RiceWR31.1%37.5%31.4%MEDIUM
Jordan LoveQB29.7%48.6%21.6%MEDIUM
Evan EngramTE25.3%49.2%25.5%MEDIUM
Juwan JohnsonTE23.7%47.6%28.6%MEDIUM
Jacoby BrissettQB22.6%45.2%32.3%MEDIUM
Tyjae SpearsRB16.3%47.1%36.6%MEDIUM
Omarion HamptonRB13.7%31.1%55.2%MEDIUM
Emanuel WilsonRB13.3%37.0%49.7%MEDIUM
Rams D/STD/ST12.7%30.0%57.4%MEDIUM
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR11.0%65.9%23.1%MEDIUM
Jameson WilliamsWR10.7%38.1%51.2%MEDIUM
Keenan AllenWR10.4%36.0%53.6%MEDIUM
Tetairoa McMillanWR9.6%34.0%56.4%MEDIUM
Bucky IrvingRB9.0%37.1%53.9%MEDIUM
Hunter HenryTE7.9%31.8%60.3%MEDIUM

Jordan Love (GB vs CHI)

Projections: ESPN 17.6 | LLM 17.5 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: XGB: 30% boom, 22% bust. vs CHI (16th vs QB). GB -6.5 favorite in shootout potential (44.5 total). Hot streak: 31/43 337yds 3TD Week 13. MODERATE mode [9.1-24.1]. Weather concern but dome-like for cold weather team. Selecting 17.5 in MODERATE range.

Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 16 | ECR: 12

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%

XGB (This Week): Boom 30% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)


Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs LAR)

Projections: ESPN 15.3 | LLM 18.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: XGB: 22% boom, 35% bust. vs LAR (10th vs QB). High game total (47.0). MC shows 70% BOOM mode! ARI +8 underdog = passing volume. LLM AGREES with MC BOOM selection despite XGB moderate signal. 18.0 in BOOM range [16.5-27.5].

Context: O/U: 47.0 | Def Rank: 10 | ECR: 8

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 5% | BOOM: 70%

XGB (This Week): Boom 23% | Bust 32% (MEDIUM)


Bucky Irving (TB vs Unk)

Projections: ESPN 16.4 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: XGB: 10% boom, 54% bust - HIGH bust risk. vs NO (28th vs RB - JUICY). TB -8.5 favorite = positive game script for RB usage. Returned Week 13 with 19 touches (17 carries). MODERATE mode [7.9-19.9]. Despite high bust risk from XGB, favorable matchup justifies MODERATE. 15.0 within range.

Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 28 | ECR: 23

MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 22%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 54% (MEDIUM)


Tyjae Spears (TEN vs CLE)

Projections: ESPN 8.6 | LLM 9.5 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: XGB: 19% boom, 34% bust. vs CLE (8th vs RB - TOUGH). Low game total (33.5) = limited scoring. TEN +4.5 underdog = negative game script risk. MC MODERATE [5.3-13.3]. MODERATE 9.5 accounts for committee split with Pollard. Ceiling capped.

Context: O/U: 33.5 | Def Rank: 8

MC (Historical): BUST: 20% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 37% (MEDIUM)


Omarion Hampton (LAC vs PHI)

Projections: ESPN 12.1 | LLM N/A (BUST)

Reasoning: RETURNING FROM IR but game-time decision MNF vs PHI. PHI elite run D (5th). XGB: 11% boom, 56% bust. Even if activated, will be on snap count. Setting 0.0 as conservative - UPDATE SUNDAY if activated with clear role.

Context: O/U: 40.5 | Def Rank: 5

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 31%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 55% (MEDIUM)


Emanuel Wilson (GB vs CHI)

Projections: ESPN 6.1 | LLM N/A (BUST)

Reasoning: BENCH player. XGB: 14% boom, 50% bust. Backup to Josh Jacobs. vs CHI. Not in lineup consideration. 0.0 (bench).

Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 12

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 11%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 50% (MEDIUM)


Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs ATL)

Projections: ESPN 20.9 | LLM 19.5 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: XGB: 12% boom, 23% bust - MODERATE profile. @ATL (26th vs WR - SMASH spot). SEA -7 favorite = positive game script. Target leader for SEA. MC MODERATE [12-26]. Selecting 19.5 in MODERATE - consistent high floor.

Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 26 | ECR: 1

MC (Historical): BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 22%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)


Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs Unk)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BUST)

Reasoning: BYE WEEK (CAR). No projection needed.

Context: Def Rank: 16

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 56% (MEDIUM)


Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs LAR)

Projections: ESPN 13.8 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: XGB: 36% boom, 20% bust - BOOM profile. vs LAR (12th vs WR). MISSED WEDNESDAY PRACTICE - monitor. High game total (47.0) but ARI +8 underdog = garbage time upside. MC MODERATE [7.8-16.2]. 14.0 in MODERATE, could upgrade to BOOM if healthy Friday.

Context: O/U: 47.0 | Def Rank: 12 | ECR: 13

MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 26%

XGB (This Week): Boom 37% | Bust 20% (MEDIUM)


Rashee Rice (KC vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 17.1 | LLM 17.5 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: XGB: 34% boom, 31% bust - VOLATILE. vs HOU (14th vs WR). KC -4.5 favorite. MC shows 47% BOOM probability but XGB more conservative. Selecting MODERATE mode [10.6-21.4] due to HOU decent secondary. 17.5 balanced projection.

Context: O/U: 41.5 | Def Rank: 14 | ECR: 3

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 47%

XGB (This Week): Boom 31% | Bust 31% (MEDIUM)


Jameson Williams (DET vs DAL)

Projections: ESPN 16.9 | LLM 18.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: THURSDAY GAME vs DAL completed. XGB: 12% boom, 47% bust. High-scoring game (54.5 total). DAL 30th vs WR = BOOM spot. Note: Check actual score. MC MODERATE [8.9-21.1]. Projecting MODERATE 18.0.

Context: O/U: 54.5 | Def Rank: 30 | ECR: 16

MC (Historical): BUST: 33% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 26%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 51% (MEDIUM)


Keenan Allen (LAC vs PHI)

Projections: ESPN 10.5 | LLM N/A (BUST)

Reasoning: BENCH player. XGB: 10% boom, 53% bust. vs PHI (7th vs WR - TOUGH). LAC +3 underdog. If starting Hampton returns, Allen depth chart impact unclear. Not in lineup consideration. 0.0 (bench).

Context: O/U: 40.5 | Def Rank: 7 | ECR: 23

MC (Historical): BUST: 63% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 54% (MEDIUM)


Evan Engram (DEN vs LV)

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: ECR: TE27 SIT. MC: 52% BUST prob. Now with DEN, splits reps with Trautman/Adkins. 6.0 within BUST [2.4-8.4]. Avoid unless desperate at TE.

Context: O/U: 44.0 | Def Rank: 16 | ECR: 27

MC (Historical): BUST: 52% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 8%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 26% (MEDIUM)


Juwan Johnson (NO vs TB)

Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: XGB: 26% boom, 30% bust. @TB (18th vs TE). NO +8.5 underdog = passing volume for garbage time. MC BOOM mode at 36%! But selecting MODERATE [5.7-12.3] due to low team total (17.0 implied). 10.0 in MODERATE range.

Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 18 | ECR: 6

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 35% | BOOM: 36%

XGB (This Week): Boom 24% | Bust 29% (MEDIUM)


Hunter Henry ( vs )

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BUST)

Reasoning: BYE WEEK (NE). No projection needed.

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)


Jordan Love (QB) - GB vs CHI

Projections: ESPN 17.6 | LLM 17.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%

XGB (This Week): Boom 30% | Bust 22%

Notes: XGB: 30% boom, 22% bust. vs CHI (16th vs QB). GB -6.5 favorite in shootout potential (44.5 total). Hot streak: 31/43 337yds 3TD Week 13. MODERATE mode [9.1-24.1]. Weather concern but dome-like for cold weather team. Selecting 17.5 in MODERATE range.


Tetairoa McMillan (WR) - CAR vs Unk

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 56%

Notes: BYE WEEK (CAR). No projection needed.


Evan Engram (TE) - DEN vs LV

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 52% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 8%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 26%

Notes: ECR: TE27 SIT. MC: 52% BUST prob. Now with DEN, splits reps with Trautman/Adkins. 6.0 within BUST [2.4-8.4]. Avoid unless desperate at TE.


Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR) - ARI vs LAR

Projections: ESPN 13.8 | LLM 14.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 26%

XGB (This Week): Boom 37% | Bust 20%

Notes: XGB: 36% boom, 20% bust - BOOM profile. vs LAR (12th vs WR). MISSED WEDNESDAY PRACTICE - monitor. High game total (47.0) but ARI +8 underdog = garbage time upside. MC MODERATE [7.8-16.2]. 14.0 in MODERATE, could upgrade to BOOM if healthy Friday.


Omarion Hampton (RB) - LAC vs PHI

Projections: ESPN 12.1 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 31%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 55%

Notes: RETURNING FROM IR but game-time decision MNF vs PHI. PHI elite run D (5th). XGB: 11% boom, 56% bust. Even if activated, will be on snap count. Setting 0.0 as conservative - UPDATE SUNDAY if activated with clear role.


Emanuel Wilson (RB) - GB vs CHI

Projections: ESPN 6.1 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 11%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 50%

Notes: BENCH player. XGB: 14% boom, 50% bust. Backup to Josh Jacobs. vs CHI. Not in lineup consideration. 0.0 (bench).


Keenan Allen (WR) - LAC vs PHI

Projections: ESPN 10.5 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): BUST: 63% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 54%

Notes: BENCH player. XGB: 10% boom, 53% bust. vs PHI (7th vs WR - TOUGH). LAC +3 underdog. If starting Hampton returns, Allen depth chart impact unclear. Not in lineup consideration. 0.0 (bench).


Hunter Henry (TE) - vs

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 60%

Notes: BYE WEEK (NE). No projection needed.


High Threat Players (>35% Boom)

Patrick Mahomes (QB): 48% boom probability

Opponent Starter Analysis

PlayerPosTeamESPNBoom%Mod%Bust%Threat
Patrick Mahomes QB 0.0 48% 37% 16% HIGH
Malik Washington WR 0.0 27% 46% 27% MEDIUM
DJ Moore WR 0.0 23% 52% 25% MEDIUM
Ray Davis RB 0.0 13% 36% 51% LOW
Ollie Gordon II RB 0.0 12% 34% 54% LOW
Vikings D/ST D/ST 0.0 12% 42% 46% LOW
Nick Chubb RB 0.0 11% 27% 62% LOW
Brandon Aubrey K 0.0 11% 26% 63% LOW
Dalton Kincaid TE 0.0 10% 34% 57% LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

Patrick Mahomes: MC (BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 47%) | XGB (Boom 48% | Bust 16%)

Malik Washington: MC (BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 48% | BOOM: 27%) | XGB (Boom 27% | Bust 27%)

DJ Moore: MC (BUST: 64% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 2%) | XGB (Boom 23% | Bust 25%)

Ray Davis: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 15%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 51%)

Ollie Gordon II: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 36% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 12% | Bust 54%)

Vikings D/ST: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 14%) | XGB (Boom 12% | Bust 46%)

Nick Chubb: MC (BUST: 55% | MODERATE: 35% | BOOM: 11%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 62%)

Brandon Aubrey: MC (BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 50% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 63%)

Dalton Kincaid: MC (BUST: 33% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 33%) | XGB (Boom 10% | Bust 57%)

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

PlayerPosTeamESPNBoom%Bust%Own%
J.K. Dobbins RB 0.0 50% 19% 0.0%
Michael Badgley K 0.0 33% 42% 0.0%
Evan Engram TE 0.0 32% 22% 0.0%
Ka'imi Fairbairn K 0.0 28% 31% 0.0%
Tyler Allgeier RB 0.0 28% 33% 0.0%
Harold Fannin Jr. TE 0.0 28% 26% 0.0%
Garrett Wilson WR 0.0 27% 39% 0.0%
Isiah Pacheco RB 0.0 27% 26% 0.0%
Chiefs D/ST D/ST 0.0 26% 31% 0.0%
Commanders D/ST D/ST 0.0 19% 43% 0.0%
Matthew Golden WR 0.0 18% 46% 0.0%
Evan McPherson K 0.0 17% 53% 0.0%
Dolphins D/ST D/ST 0.0 16% 40% 0.0%
Kyler Murray QB 0.0 14% 45% 0.0%
Chuba Hubbard RB 0.0 14% 49% 0.0%

QB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Kyler Murray 0.0 BUST:18%, MODERATE:54%, BOOM:29% 14% 45%
Sam Darnold 0.0 BUST:38%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:22% 14% 48%
Justin Fields 0.0 BUST:39%, MODERATE:31%, BOOM:30% 14% 49%

RB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
J.K. Dobbins 0.0 BUST:48%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:12% 50% 19%
Tyler Allgeier 0.0 BUST:48%, MODERATE:35%, BOOM:16% 28% 33%
Isiah Pacheco 0.0 BUST:61%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:7% 27% 26%
Chuba Hubbard 0.0 BUST:26%, MODERATE:50%, BOOM:24% 14% 49%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt 0.0 BUST:48%, MODERATE:36%, BOOM:16% 9% 58%

WR Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Garrett Wilson 0.0 BUST:40%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:19% 27% 39%
Matthew Golden 0.0 BUST:42%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:30% 18% 46%
Cooper Kupp 0.0 BUST:49%, MODERATE:33%, BOOM:17% 12% 58%
Tre Tucker 0.0 BUST:55%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:6% 9% 42%
Jayden Reed 0.0 BUST:37%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:10% 0% 0%

TE Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Evan Engram 0.0 BUST:48%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:7% 32% 22%
Harold Fannin Jr. 0.0 BUST:24%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:23% 28% 26%
Colston Loveland 0.0 BUST:51%, MODERATE:30%, BOOM:19% 8% 56%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Michael Badgley 0.0 33% 42%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 0.0 28% 31%
Evan McPherson 0.0 17% 53%

D/ST Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Chiefs D/ST 0.0 26% 31%
Commanders D/ST 0.0 19% 43%
Dolphins D/ST 0.0 16% 40%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 14 | Generated: 2025-12-04 08:25

Matchup Summary

84.6%

Win Probability

+31.2
Expected Margin
125.5
My Team (LLM Proj)
87.2
Opponent (Proj)
30.3
Margin Std Dev
118.7
My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -8.1 pts | Median: +31.8 pts | Ceiling: +69.3 pts

Margin Distribution

Opponent Bench Substitution Analysis

When opponent starters are injured, the system models likely bench substitutions to provide more accurate win probability estimates. (ESPN projections shown - LLM projections only available for our team)

Position Injured Starter Status ESPN Proj Replacement Repl ESPN
TE Dalton Kincaid QUESTIONABLE 12.2 Sam LaPorta 11.9

Opponent Lineup Scenarios

Win probability weighted across multiple injury scenarios.

Scenario Probability Opp Total EV Win Prob Expected Margin
All injured starters play 85.0% 87.2 84.9% +31.3
All injured starters out 15.0% 89.0 84.0% +29.6

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jacoby Brissett QB HIGH 18.0 4.2-28.0 ↑15+: 64% | ↓5-: 12% Jacoby Brissett
Bucky Irving RB HIGH 15.0 4.3-24.5 ↑15+: 44% | ↓5-: 12% Bucky Irving
Tyjae Spears RB HIGH 9.5 2.2-19.9 ↑15+: 20% | ↓5-: 27% Tyjae Spears
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR HIGH 19.5 5.6-30.0 ↑15+: 58% | ↓5-: 7% Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Rashee Rice WR MED 17.5 7.1-27.9 ↑15+: 62% | ↓5-: 2% Rashee Rice
Jameson Williams WR HIGH 18.0 4.1-25.8 ↑15+: 47% | ↓5-: 15% Jameson Williams
Juwan Johnson TE HIGH 10.0 2.5-17.0 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 25% Juwan Johnson
Rams D/ST D/ST HIGH 8.0 0.0-17.5 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 44% Rams D/ST
Jason Myers K MED 10.0 4.6-16.4 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 13% Jason Myers

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jordan Love QB HIGH 17.5 6.3-27.7 ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 6% Jordan Love
Omarion Hampton RB HIGH 0.0 2.5-24.0 ↑15+: 34% | ↓5-: 23% Omarion Hampton
Emanuel Wilson RB HIGH 0.0 0.4-20.4 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 44% Emanuel Wilson
Tetairoa McMillan WR HIGH 0.0 5.0-25.8 ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 10% Tetairoa McMillan
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR HIGH 14.0 3.4-21.6 ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 19% Marvin Harrison Jr.
Keenan Allen WR HIGH 0.0 4.5-26.0 ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 14% Keenan Allen
Hunter Henry TE HIGH 0.0 3.3-21.9 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 27% Hunter Henry

Opponent

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Patrick Mahomes QB MED 20.2 9.9-31.3 ↑15+: 69% | ↓5-: 0% Patrick Mahomes
Nick Chubb RB HIGH 7.5 1.6-15.7 ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 44% Nick Chubb
Ray Davis RB HIGH 6.8 0.2-16.1 ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 48% Ray Davis
Ollie Gordon II RB HIGH 7.7 0.4-17.0 ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 44% Ollie Gordon II
DJ Moore WR HIGH 11.8 4.2-23.1 ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 18% DJ Moore
Malik Washington WR HIGH 8.3 2.1-15.7 ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 33% Malik Washington
Dalton Kincaid TE HIGH 9.6 2.7-18.4 ↑15+: 22% | ↓5-: 28% Dalton Kincaid
Vikings D/ST D/ST HIGH 6.3 0.0-20.5 ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 59% Vikings D/ST
Brandon Aubrey K HIGH 9.0 3.3-16.6 ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 23% Brandon Aubrey

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
J.J. McCarthy QB HIGH 14.9 3.5-26.9 ↑15+: 49% | ↓5-: 16% J.J. McCarthy
Christian McCaffrey RB MED 22.3 11.4-34.9 ↑15+: 72% | ↓5-: 0% Christian McCaffrey
Rhamondre Stevenson RB HIGH 10.3 2.1-20.5 ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 31% Rhamondre Stevenson
Keon Coleman WR HIGH 9.2 2.5-18.4 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 32% Keon Coleman
Sam LaPorta TE HIGH 11.4 3.6-20.0 ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 19% Sam LaPorta
Packers D/ST D/ST HIGH 6.8 0.0-15.8 ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 48% Packers D/ST
Chris Boswell K HIGH 8.4 1.9-15.6 ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 31% Chris Boswell

Scenario Details

Player Position BOOM MODERATE BUST EV
Bucky Irving RB 22% @ 23.8 61% @ 14.0 17% @ 4.3 14.6
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 23% @ 29.4 43% @ 18.6 34% @ 7.2 17.1
Rashee Rice WR 47% @ 24.2 29% @ 15.7 25% @ 7.9 17.8
Tyjae Spears RB 18% @ 20.4 61% @ 8.9 20% @ 3.0 9.8
Jason Myers K 22% @ 15.9 44% @ 11.2 34% @ 5.8 10.3
Juwan Johnson TE 36% @ 14.7 35% @ 9.2 28% @ 3.6 9.6
Jameson Williams WR 26% @ 24.0 41% @ 15.2 33% @ 5.6 14.4
Jacoby Brissett QB 70% @ 21.7 5% @ 14.8 24% @ 6.0 17.5
Rams D/ST D/ST 23% @ 16.3 40% @ 8.0 37% @ 1.3 7.5

Waiver Wire Notes

No urgent moves with Hampton returning. If both RBs out: Isiah Pacheco (KC), Chris Rodriguez Jr. (WSH), or Bhayshul Tuten (JAX) are best available. Chuba Hubbard on bye.

Injury Concerns

No major injury concerns.

ESPN Projection Accuracy

projection_accuracy_overall.png projection_accuracy_by_position.png projection_error_distribution.png projection_accuracy_trend.png league_team_mae_ranking.png league_bias_heatmap.png league_positional_scatter.png

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

xgb_boom_calibration.png xgb_bust_calibration.png xgb_position_calibration.png xgb_weekly_brier_trend.png xgb_feature_importance.png

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

llm_vs_espn_scatter_comparison.png llm_weekly_winners.png llm_cumulative_improvement.png llm_position_advantage.png llm_confidence_correlation.png

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 14 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.